The opinion polls, well YouGov at least, seem to have Boris ahead by 6%. Other polls seem to show Livingstone ahead. So which is correct?
Watching TV last night I was struck by how little enthusiasm there is for Livingstone amongst his supporters. Most seemed to think that he had been in power for long enough. Contrary wise there is great enthusiasm for Boris.
This suggests that there may well be differential turnout between supporters of the two candidates, with supporters of Boris anxious to vote and supporters of Livingstone more inclined to abstain. So, on the face of it, Boris should win.
Nevertheless, my gut feel is that Boris won’t win. I suspect the Labour machine will drag its members kicking and screaming to the polling booths where they will dutifully hold their noses and vote for the evil that is Livingstone.
Meanwhile the Tory vote – based principally in the “doughnut” around central London will be lower than hoped as the daily commute, showers and the general hassle of getting around will combine to deter many Boris supporters.
No-one will be more delighted than me if I’m wrong.
Well off to vote now – for Boris and the forces of light (of course).
UPDATE
It seems William Hill have noticed a surge in betting on Boris - he's now 2/7 with Satan at 5/2.
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